Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jagiellonia face Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chorten Arena plays host to Jagiellonia versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 9 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Chorten Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Chorten Arena this season.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Jagiellonia's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Jagiellonia are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jagiellonia and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 64% | Widzew Łódź 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.22 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.991 / defence 0.902 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.759 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.195. Data: 36 Jagiellonia games / 36 Widzew Łódź games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 23%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Widzew Łódź 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 70% | Widzew Łódź 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Jagiellonia 1.22 / Widzew Łódź 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.991 / def 0.902 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.759 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Widzew Łódź xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia 0 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 44% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Jagiellonia 6W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (0.99) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.76x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.05
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.03
0.82
Widzew Łódź xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
7%
14.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.82 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia come into this having played 36 games, going 17W 11D 8L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (12W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jagiellonia's home form reads 10W 3D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (3W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.19 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 17W 11D 8L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.83 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
From 9 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Widzew Łódź 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Jagiellonia) and 44% (Widzew Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 44% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Jagiellonia's matches and 44% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Jagiellonia 0-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.22 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.82 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.76 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 23%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Widzew Łódź win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 64%, Widzew Łódź 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.