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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź encounter.

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Full Analysis

Chorten Arena plays host to Jagiellonia versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 9 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC.

Form

Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Chorten Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Widzew Łódź haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Jagiellonia, 1.50 for Widzew Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Across 10 previous meetings, Jagiellonia are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 3, with 1 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Jagiellonia winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jagiellonia and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

League Table

Jagiellonia hold the table advantage, sitting 1st with 0 points — 14 positions and 0 points clear of Widzew Łódź in 15th.

At home this season, Jagiellonia have gone 0W 0D 0L. On the road, Widzew Łódź's record stands at 0W 0D 0L this term. Jagiellonia: Promotion - Champions League (Qualification).

Trading Data

Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).

Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 65% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 65% | Widzew Łódź 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.44 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.043 / defence 1.030 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.863 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Jagiellonia games / 34 Widzew Łódź games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 46% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 26%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Widzew Łódź 3.85. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Widzew Łódź 30% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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