GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GKS Katowice at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion miejski w Katowicach to face GKS Katowice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GKS Katowice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. GKS Katowice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, GKS Katowice have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadion miejski w Katowicach — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — GKS Katowice are significantly better at Stadion miejski w Katowicach than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for GKS Katowice against 1.40 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GKS Katowice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Radomiak Radom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GKS Katowice lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with GKS Katowice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
GKS Katowice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GKS Katowice 51% and Radomiak Radom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GKS Katowice 51% | Radomiak Radom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 1.92 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 1.193 / defence 0.970 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.948 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.173. Data: 35 GKS Katowice games / 35 Radomiak Radom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 56% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 20%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 5.00. The model has a clear lean to GKS Katowice (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GKS Katowice at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GKS Katowice 60% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion miejski w Katowicach • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 56% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG GKS Katowice 1.92 / Radomiak Radom 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 1.193 / def 0.970 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.948 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Radomiak Radom xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
GKS Katowice 3 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 56% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
Record (4 meetings): GKS Katowice 2W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom in?
GKS Katowice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GKS Katowice's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.95x) against GKS Katowice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.23
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
3.00
1.08
Radomiak Radom xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
3%
33.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 1.08 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GKS Katowice come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 8D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for GKS Katowice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.34 PPG from 35 outings (12W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for GKS Katowice against 1.34 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
GKS Katowice's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — GKS Katowice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GKS Katowice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 71%.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GKS Katowice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
GKS Katowice's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GKS Katowice at home: 1.94 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GKS Katowice have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
From 5 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GKS Katowice 53%, Radomiak Radom 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (GKS Katowice) and 59% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GKS Katowice play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of GKS Katowice's games and 71% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GKS Katowice vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of GKS Katowice's matches and 59% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do GKS Katowice and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
GKS Katowice have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GKS Katowice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Radomiak Radom 3-1 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.92 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.08 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. GKS Katowice beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 56% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 20%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 51%, Radomiak Radom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GKS Katowice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.43 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.