Piast Gliwice 4-3 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 51%, yet in-form Wisla Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 2 as Piast Gliwice welcome Wisla Krakow to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 August 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Ekstraklasa matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wisla Krakow — 2.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Wisla Krakow 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.59 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.974 / defence 1.058 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.112. Data: 35 Piast Gliwice games / 1 Wisla Krakow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 51% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 24%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Wisla Krakow 4.17. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Krakow (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 51% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.59 / Wisla Krakow 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.974 / def 1.058 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Wisla Krakow xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Piast Gliwice 4 - 3 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 51% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 1 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.97) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.87
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.59
1.00
Wisla Krakow xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
5%
20.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.00 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Krakow by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Wisla Krakow in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Wisla Krakow specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Piast Gliwice 4-3 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Wisla Krakow 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Wisla Krakow 4-3 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.59 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.00 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Krakow outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 51% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 24%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 0%, Wisla Krakow 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Krakow arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice scored 4 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Krakow scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.