Widzew Łódź 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Widzew Łódź. A 1.00 PPG lead over Jagiellonia (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 0 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2022, ended 2–0 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 39% versus Jagiellonia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 56% | Jagiellonia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.52 xG and Jagiellonia 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.111 / defence 1.192 | Jagiellonia attack 0.896 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.249. Data: 18 Widzew Łódź games / 52 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 32%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 56% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.52 / Jagiellonia 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.111 / def 1.192 | Jagiellonia attack 0.896 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Jagiellonia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 40% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (1.11) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.90x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.67
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.85
1.33
Jagiellonia xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.33 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 9W 3D 6L from 18 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 7L across 18 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Widzew Łódź by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jagiellonia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 0W 6D 3L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.44 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 67%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Jagiellonia away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.56 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
6
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 56%, Jagiellonia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Widzew Łódź) and 33% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Widzew Łódź's games and 67% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 33% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 19, as Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.52 xG and Jagiellonia 1.33 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.11 / defence 1.19 against Jagiellonia attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 32%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 56%, Jagiellonia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.