Lechia Gdansk 0-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Widzew Łódź to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 3W 3D 4L at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 5W 1D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 1.80 (Widzew Łódź). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lechia Gdansk's 30% rate and Widzew Łódź's 22% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 0 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 3–2 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 53% versus Widzew Łódź 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 68% | Widzew Łódź 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.14 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.886 / defence 1.004 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.854 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.187. Data: 53 Lechia Gdansk games / 19 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 37% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 31%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Widzew Łódź 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 30% | Widzew Łódź 22% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 37% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.14 / Widzew Łódź 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.886 / def 1.004 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.854 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Widzew Łódź xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 37% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.89x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.13
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.16
1.02
Widzew Łódź xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.02 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 6W 3D 10L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 9W 4D 6L from 19 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Widzew Łódź are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lechia Gdansk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.37 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Widzew Łódź's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.22 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lechia Gdansk 33% BTTS, Widzew Łódź 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lechia Gdansk) and 44% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 56%; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 44% of games; Widzew Łódź in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 22% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 44% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lechia Gdansk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź finished level at 0-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.14 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.02 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 37% | Draw 32% | Widzew Łódź 31%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 68%, Widzew Łódź 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.