Radomiak Radom 1-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 19 as Radomiak Radom welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Stal Mielec and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 52% versus Stal Mielec 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 40% | Stal Mielec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.39 xG and Stal Mielec 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.016 / defence 1.125 | Stal Mielec attack 0.969 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.230. Data: 52 Radomiak Radom games / 52 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 34%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Stal Mielec 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 50% | Stal Mielec 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.39 / Stal Mielec 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.016 / def 1.125 | Stal Mielec attack 0.969 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Stal Mielec xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 37% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 2 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.02x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
37%
2.73
29%
3.43
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.73
1.34
Stal Mielec xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.34 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 18W 18D 16L from 52 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 21L across 52 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.38 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 10W 8D 8L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 6W 7D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 18D 16L in their last 52 games (1.38 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Stal Mielec away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.46 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 62%, Stal Mielec 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Radomiak Radom) and 50% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Radomiak Radom's games and 58% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 50% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Stal Mielec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Stal Mielec 1-0 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.39 xG and Stal Mielec 1.34 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stal Mielec landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Stal Mielec attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 34%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 40%, Stal Mielec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.38 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.