Jagiellonia 2-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 11 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 0.50 PPG clear of Jagiellonia in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Pogon Szczecin in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Pogon Szczecin hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 66% and Pogon Szczecin 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 53% | Pogon Szczecin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.77 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.195 / defence 1.204 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.342 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.164. Pogon Szczecin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Jagiellonia games / 53 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 36% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 40%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Pogon Szczecin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Pogon Szczecin 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 36% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Jagiellonia 1.77 / Pogon Szczecin 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.195 / def 1.204 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.342 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Pogon Szczecin xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Jagiellonia 2 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 36% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.20) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.34x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.20
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.65
1.88
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
15%
6.56
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
5%
18.29
7%
14.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.88 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 53 games, going 13W 21D 19L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.79 PPG from 53 outings (26W 17D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 9W 9D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.65 points per game from 26 outings (11W 10D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.79 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Pogon Szczecin in 68%.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 13W 21D 19L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 26W 17D 10L in their last 53 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.38 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Jagiellonia, 62% for Pogon Szczecin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Jagiellonia) and 42% (Pogon Szczecin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Jagiellonia's games and 62% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 42% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.77 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.88 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.20 / defence 1.20 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.34 / defence 1.24, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 36% | Draw 24% | Pogon Szczecin 40%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 53%, Pogon Szczecin 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Jagiellonia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.