Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Raków Częstochowa face Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice meet at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Raków Częstochowa's 2.60 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Raków Częstochowa, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Piast Gliwice — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 46% versus Piast Gliwice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 56% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.77 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.401 / defence 0.781 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.998 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.245. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Raków Częstochowa games / 52 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 19%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Piast Gliwice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Piast Gliwice 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.77 / Piast Gliwice 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.401 / def 0.781 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.998 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Piast Gliwice xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 55% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice?
Record (3 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.00x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.82
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.74
0.97
Piast Gliwice xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
3%
30.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.97 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 33W 12D 7L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 19W 14D 19L from 52 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.35 PPG from 26 outings (18W 7D 1L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 10W 8D 8L from 26 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.23 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 33W 12D 7L in their last 52 games (2.13 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.35 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 46%, Piast Gliwice 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Raków Częstochowa) and 27% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 31%; Piast Gliwice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 38% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 27% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.77 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.97 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.40 / defence 0.78 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 19%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 56%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.