Wisla Plock 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Warta Poznań at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Warta Poznań travel to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 8 March 2023, 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Warta Poznań are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wisla Plock, 1 for Warta Poznań and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2022, ended 4–0 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 54% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 55% | Warta Poznań 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.93 xG and Warta Poznań 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.843 / defence 0.908 | Warta Poznań attack 1.104 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.123. Data: 56 Wisla Plock games / 56 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 30% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 40%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Warta Poznań 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Warta Poznań are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Warta Poznań 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Mar 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 30% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Wisla Plock 0.93 / Warta Poznań 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.843 / def 0.908 | Warta Poznań attack 1.104 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Warta Poznań xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 8 March 2023 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Wisla Plock 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań part of?
Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 30% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.84x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.32
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.06
1.12
Warta Poznań xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.12 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 56 games, going 23W 7D 26L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.34 PPG from 56 outings (20W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.36 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Plock's home form reads 17W 3D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.67 points per game from 27 outings (14W 3D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.12 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 23W 7D 26L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Warta Poznań away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.00 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2022, when Wisla Plock won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań?
From 4 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2023, when Wisla Plock 1-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Plock 41% BTTS, Warta Poznań 18%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Wisla Plock) and 26% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 48%; Warta Poznań in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 18% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 26% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 0.93 xG and Warta Poznań 1.12 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.84 / defence 0.91 against Warta Poznań attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 30% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 40%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 55%, Warta Poznań 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.36 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.