Piast Gliwice 4-3 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.00 for Wisla Plock. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Piast Gliwice 33% | Wisla Plock 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 33% | Wisla Plock 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.22 xG and Wisla Plock 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.047 / defence 1.384 | Wisla Plock attack 0.614 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.091. Data: 3 Piast Gliwice games / 3 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 27%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Wisla Plock 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 33% | Wisla Plock 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.22 / Wisla Plock 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.047 / def 1.384 | Wisla Plock attack 0.614 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Wisla Plock xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Piast Gliwice 4 - 3 Wisla Plock.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 42% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 1.05x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.61x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
42%
2.41
32%
3.17
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.14
0.93
Wisla Plock xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.93 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.00 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 0.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Plock in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Piast Gliwice or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Wisla Plock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Piast Gliwice) and 0% (Wisla Plock) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Piast Gliwice and 0% for Wisla Plock.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 33%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 33% of games; Wisla Plock in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 0% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 0% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Wisla Plock 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Wisla Plock 4-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.22 xG and Wisla Plock 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Plock outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.05 / defence 1.38 against Wisla Plock attack 0.61 / defence 1.12, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 27%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 33%, Wisla Plock 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.00 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.