Górnik Łęczna 0-4 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Górnik Łęczna take on Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Górnik Łęczna host Warta Poznań at Stadion Górnik in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Górnik Łęczna have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Górnik Łęczna have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 0W 2D 0L from 2 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Warta Poznań's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Górnik Łęczna's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.30 xG and Warta Poznań 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.929 / defence 1.135 | Warta Poznań attack 0.960 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.143. Warta Poznań bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Górnik Łęczna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Górnik Łęczna games / 2 Warta Poznań games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Warta Poznań 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Friday 6 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.30 / Warta Poznań 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.929 / def 1.135 | Warta Poznań attack 0.960 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Warta Poznań xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 6 August 2021 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań?
Górnik Łęczna 0 - 4 Warta Poznań.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 34% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Górnik Łęczna's attack at 0.93x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Górnik Łęczna's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
34%
2.91
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
Warta Poznań xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.25 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Górnik Łęczna come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Warta Poznań carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Warta Poznań in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Early Season
Warta Poznań
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
1
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Warta Poznań 1-1 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Warta Poznań?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Górnik Łęczna's games and 100% of Warta Poznań's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 50% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Warta Poznań run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Górnik Łęczna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Górnik Łęczna 0-4 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.30 xG and Warta Poznań 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Górnik Łęczna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Warta Poznań outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Warta Poznań attack 0.96 / defence 1.24, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32%, with Górnik Łęczna to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Warta Poznań win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 50%, Warta Poznań 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Warta Poznań arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Górnik Łęczna managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Warta Poznań scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.