Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 2W 1D 0L at Stadion Miejski — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 2.33 PPG return is 1.33 points per game ahead of Gornik Zabrze's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Jagiellonia 33% | Gornik Zabrze 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jagiellonia 33% | Gornik Zabrze 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.48 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.110 / defence 0.881 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.736 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.090. Gornik Zabrze bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Jagiellonia games / 3 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 54% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 16%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Gornik Zabrze 6.25. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 33% | Gornik Zabrze 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 54% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Jagiellonia 1.48 / Gornik Zabrze 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.110 / def 0.881 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.736 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Gornik Zabrze xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Jagiellonia 1 - 3 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 54% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-W-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.11x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.74x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.35
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.19
0.71
Gornik Zabrze xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.71 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gornik Zabrze heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Jagiellonia or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Jagiellonia) and 33% (Gornik Zabrze) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Jagiellonia and 33% for Gornik Zabrze.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze in 33%; Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 33% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 33% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Jagiellonia 1-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.48 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.71 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.74 / defence 1.25, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 54% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 16%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Gornik Zabrze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 33%, Gornik Zabrze 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.