Raków Częstochowa 2-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 2W 4D 2L from 8 outings — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.25 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Raków Częstochowa have the edge — a 0.75 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 71% and Radomiak Radom 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 86% | Radomiak Radom 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.24 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.036 / defence 1.228 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.699 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.183. Data: 7 Raków Częstochowa games / 8 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 30%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 71% | Radomiak Radom 25%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Raków • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.24 / Radomiak Radom 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.036 / def 1.228 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.699 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Radomiak Radom xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Stadion Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 41% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.51
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.25
1.02
Radomiak Radom xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.02 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 2D 1L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's scoring rate against Radomiak Radom's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 71%, Radomiak Radom 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 86% (Raków Częstochowa) and 29% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 57% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 29% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Raków, Regular Season - 4, as Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.24 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.70 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 30%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 86%, Radomiak Radom 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Radomiak Radom scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.