Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Raków Częstochowa welcome Jagiellonia to zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 31). Kick-off is Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Jagiellonia have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 2 for Jagiellonia and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Jagiellonia — a Raków Częstochowa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Jagiellonia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.103 / defence 0.794 | Jagiellonia attack 1.088 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.091. Raków Częstochowa have a tight defence (rating 0.794), which is pulling Jagiellonia's projected output down. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 65 games and Jagiellonia's last 65.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.31 | Draw 3.12 | Jagiellonia 4.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 40% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 31 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.32 / Jagiellonia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.103 / def 0.794 | Jagiellonia attack 1.088 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Jagiellonia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Raków Częstochowa 0 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 31) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 43% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.10x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 65 games and Jagiellonia's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.12
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.26
0.94
Jagiellonia xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.94 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 34W 16D 15L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Jagiellonia's form line: 30W 20D 15L from 65 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.82 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 32 home games (17W 7D 8L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 13W 11D 8L from their last 32 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.65 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 34W 16D 15L in their last 65 games (1.82 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 30W 20D 15L in their last 65 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.81 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won Raków Częstochowa 5-0 Jagiellonia.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Jagiellonia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Raków Częstochowa) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 59% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 75% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Raków Częstochowa 0-2 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG and Jagiellonia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.79 against Jagiellonia attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 43% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Jagiellonia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.82 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.