Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours Cracovia Krakow — this Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cracovia Krakow travel to zondacrypto Arena to take on Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.10 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Cracovia Krakow have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Raków Częstochowa.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Raków Częstochowa 0–2 Cracovia Krakow — a Cracovia Krakow win.
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Cracovia Krakow 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 40% | Cracovia Krakow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.855 / defence 0.824 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.742 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.112. Cracovia Krakow's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 62 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 62.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 22%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.20 | Draw 3.03 | Cracovia Krakow 4.64. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cracovia Krakow's lower xG of 0.68 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 40% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.12 / Cracovia Krakow 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.855 / def 0.824 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.742 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Cracovia Krakow xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Raków Częstochowa 4 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 45% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (0.85) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 62 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
45%
2.20
33%
3.03
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
1.80
0.68
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.68 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 62 games, going 31W 16D 15L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.42 PPG from 62 outings (23W 19D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.76 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 15W 7D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 7D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.47 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 63%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 16D 15L in their last 62 games (1.76 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 19D 20L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.73 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 16 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Raków Częstochowa.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 50%, Cracovia Krakow 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Raków Częstochowa) and 57% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 57% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 57% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 70% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Cracovia Krakow 4-1 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.12 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.68 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.74 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 45% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 22%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 40%, Cracovia Krakow 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.76 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.