Radomiak Radom 3-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.50 for Cracovia Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Cracovia Krakow in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Cracovia Krakow, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cracovia Krakow have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 72% and Cracovia Krakow 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 64% | Cracovia Krakow 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.78 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.136 / defence 0.972 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.132 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.178. Data: 48 Radomiak Radom games / 47 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 3.85. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Cracovia Krakow 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.78 / Cracovia Krakow 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.136 / def 0.972 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.132 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 47% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (7 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 5W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.14) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.13x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.82
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.08
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
4%
22.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 12D 20L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 20W 13D 14L from 47 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.55 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 4D 8L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.68 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 70%.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 12D 20L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.61 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 6-0 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Radomiak Radom, 70% for Cracovia Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Radomiak Radom) and 65% (Cracovia Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Radomiak Radom's games and 70% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 65% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Cracovia Krakow 3-0 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.78 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 64%, Cracovia Krakow 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.21 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.