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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów than their overall form suggests.

Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.50 for Cracovia Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Cracovia Krakow in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 5 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 72% and Cracovia Krakow 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 64% | Cracovia Krakow 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.78 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.136 / defence 0.972 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.132 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.178. Data: 48 Radomiak Radom games / 47 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 3.85. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Cracovia Krakow 70% BTTS from recent games.

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