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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Poznan to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 13:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lech Poznan's home record at Stadion Poznan: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lech Poznan 1.40 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Lech Poznan, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Lech Poznan trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Radomiak Radom trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lech Poznan 58% and Radomiak Radom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 60% | Radomiak Radom 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 2.30 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.109 / defence 1.241 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.126 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.240. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Lech Poznan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Lech Poznan games / 49 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 50% | Draw 22% | Radomiak Radom 28%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Radomiak Radom 3.57. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 90% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.

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