Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 November 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.60 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Cracovia Krakow have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Zaglebie Lubin have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The historical record gives Cracovia Krakow a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 72% and Zaglebie Lubin 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 59% | Zaglebie Lubin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.73 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.025 / defence 0.832 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.911 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.188. Data: 46 Cracovia Krakow games / 46 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 56% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 56% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.73 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.025 / def 0.832 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.911 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 56% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (8 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 4W | Draws 3 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.02) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.81
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.63
0.90
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
31.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.90 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 20W 12D 14L from 46 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 21L across 46 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cracovia Krakow by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zaglebie Lubin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 9W 8D 6L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.26 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.52 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 74%, Zaglebie Lubin at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cracovia Krakow) and 44% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 14, as Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.73 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Zaglebie Lubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 56% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 59%, Zaglebie Lubin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.