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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 November 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego than their overall form suggests.

Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.60 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Cracovia Krakow have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Zaglebie Lubin have managed just 1 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.

The historical record gives Cracovia Krakow a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 72% and Zaglebie Lubin 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 59% | Zaglebie Lubin 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.73 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.025 / defence 0.832 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.911 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.188. Data: 46 Cracovia Krakow games / 46 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 56% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 70% BTTS from recent games.

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