Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Motor Lublin (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cracovia Krakow lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 69% and Motor Lublin 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 58% | Motor Lublin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Motor Lublin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.910 / defence 0.761 | Motor Lublin attack 1.008 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.202. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Cracovia Krakow games / 48 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Motor Lublin 5.00. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Motor Lublin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.60 / Motor Lublin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.910 / def 0.761 | Motor Lublin attack 1.008 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Motor Lublin xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 2 Motor Lublin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 51% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin?
Record (2 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 0 | Motor Lublin 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Motor Lublin's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Motor Lublin's attack (1.01x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.41
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.52
0.92
Motor Lublin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
4%
25.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.92 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 13D 15L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Motor Lublin sit at 1.35 PPG from 48 outings (17W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.35 for Motor Lublin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 9D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Motor Lublin have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.40 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 20W 13D 15L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Motor Lublin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.50 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 6-2 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Motor Lublin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
1
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Motor Lublin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Motor Lublin 3-3 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 71%, Motor Lublin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cracovia Krakow) and 62% (Motor Lublin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 54% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 62% of Motor Lublin's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Motor Lublin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against Motor Lublin attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 58%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.52 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.