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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Polsat Plus Arena to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 November 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Polsat Plus Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena than their overall form suggests.

Radomiak Radom — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 0.90 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Radomiak Radom have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Lechia Gdansk.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Radomiak Radom have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 66% and Radomiak Radom 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 60% | Radomiak Radom 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 2.41 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.047 / defence 1.106 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.149 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.193. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Lechia Gdansk games / 47 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

Radomiak Radom lead the H2H ledger, but Lechia Gdansk carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 70% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.

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