Radomiak Radom 3-1 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face Arka Gdynia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia meet at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Radomiak Radom's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Radomiak Radom have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Arka Gdynia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Arka Gdynia away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.40 for Arka Gdynia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Arka Gdynia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Jul 2025, ended Radomiak Radom 1–1 Arka Gdynia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Arka Gdynia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 73% and Arka Gdynia 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 64% | Arka Gdynia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 2.14 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.120 / defence 0.980 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.576 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.169. Arka Gdynia's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Arka Gdynia's attack rating of 0.576 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 56 games and Arka Gdynia's last 22.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 70% | Draw 20% | Arka Gdynia 9%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.42 | Draw 4.90 | Arka Gdynia 10.98. The model has a clear lean to Radomiak Radom (70%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Arka Gdynia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 60% (last 10 home games) | Arka Gdynia 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Thursday 5 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 70% | Draw 20% | Arka Gdynia 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Radomiak Radom 2.14 / Arka Gdynia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.120 / def 0.980 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.576 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Arka Gdynia xG
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Thursday 5 March 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 19) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 70% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.12) and Arka Gdynia's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arka Gdynia's attack (0.58x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 56 games and Arka Gdynia's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
70%
1.42
20%
4.90
9%
10.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.80
0.66
Arka Gdynia xG
1.42
70%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
10.98
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
93.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.66 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 7W 8D 7L from 22 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Arka Gdynia, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 10L across 22 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.18 for Arka Gdynia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Arka Gdynia's away record stands at 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 away games, a 0.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 0.95 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Arka Gdynia
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Arka Gdynia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Arka Gdynia
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 2.00 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia, the earliest from July 2025. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 5 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
0
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Arka Gdynia have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 March 2026: Radomiak Radom 3-1 Arka Gdynia.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 60%, Arka Gdynia 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Radomiak Radom) and 40% (Arka Gdynia).
On the defensive side: Arka Gdynia in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Arka Gdynia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 20% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 40% of Arka Gdynia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Arka Gdynia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 70% of Arka Gdynia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arka Gdynia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Arka Gdynia 3-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 2.14 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.58 / defence 1.34, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 70% | Draw 20% | Arka Gdynia 9%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 64%, Arka Gdynia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.