Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pogon Szczecin face Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pogon Szczecin welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pogon Szczecin at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Legia Warszawa stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 0W 7D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pogon Szczecin at 1.40 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Legia Warszawa 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 50% versus Legia Warszawa 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Legia Warszawa 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pogon Szczecin surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Legia Warszawa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.64 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.088 / defence 0.960 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.078 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.084. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 60 games and Legia Warszawa's last 60.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.09 | Draw 3.63 | Legia Warszawa 4.08. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pogon Szczecin's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 80% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.64 / Legia Warszawa 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.088 / def 0.960 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.078 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 27) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 48% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.09) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 60 games and Legia Warszawa's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.63
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.76
1.12
Legia Warszawa xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
5%
21.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.12 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 11D 22L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (21W 21D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.53 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 21W 4D 5L across their last 30 home games, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.50 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 65%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 21W 21D 18L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.23 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 24 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Legia Warszawa have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 July 2026: Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 47%, Legia Warszawa 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 70% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Legia Warszawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 80% of Legia Warszawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Pogon Szczecin 0-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.64 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 25%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.