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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 28 as Legia Warszawa welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Wojska Polskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gornik Zabrze away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.20 (Gornik Zabrze). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Legia Warszawa: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Gornik Zabrze, with 2 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Gornik Zabrze winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 64% versus Gornik Zabrze 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 49% | Gornik Zabrze 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.27 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.880 / defence 0.951 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.811 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.057. Data: 61 Legia Warszawa games / 61 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 23%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Gornik Zabrze 4.35. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 50% | Gornik Zabrze 50%.

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