Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 28 as Legia Warszawa welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Wojska Polskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.20 (Gornik Zabrze). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Legia Warszawa: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Gornik Zabrze, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 64% versus Gornik Zabrze 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 49% | Gornik Zabrze 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.27 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.880 / defence 0.951 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.811 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.057. Data: 61 Legia Warszawa games / 61 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 23%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Gornik Zabrze 4.35. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 50% | Gornik Zabrze 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.27 / Gornik Zabrze 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.880 / def 0.951 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.811 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Gornik Zabrze xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 46% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (9 meetings): Legia Warszawa 5W | Draws 2 | Gornik Zabrze 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.88x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.25
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.09
0.81
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.81 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 22W 21D 18L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 25W 14D 22L from 61 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.43 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 9D 13L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.34 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 22W 21D 18L in their last 61 games (1.43 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 25W 14D 22L in their last 61 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.70 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
2
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 60%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Legia Warszawa) and 43% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 27% of games; Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Legia Warszawa's games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 43% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.27 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.81 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.88 / defence 0.95 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 23%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 49%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.43 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.