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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Match Analysis

Piast Gliwice host Radomiak Radom at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Piast Gliwice — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Piast Gliwice have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 3 for Radomiak Radom and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 48% versus Radomiak Radom 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 41% | Radomiak Radom 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.850 / defence 1.038 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.958 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.156. Data: 59 Piast Gliwice games / 59 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Radomiak Radom lead the H2H ledger, but Piast Gliwice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Piast Gliwice 50% | Radomiak Radom 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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