Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Chorten Arena to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Chorten Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Chorten Arena than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jagiellonia at 1.40 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jagiellonia, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 6 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Piast Gliwice trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 63% versus Piast Gliwice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Piast Gliwice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.01 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.292 / defence 1.060 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.112 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.173. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Jagiellonia games / 58 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Piast Gliwice 4.00. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Piast Gliwice 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Jagiellonia 2.01 / Piast Gliwice 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.292 / def 1.060 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.112 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Piast Gliwice xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Jagiellonia 1 - 2 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 51% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
Record (9 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 6 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.24
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.39
1.38
Piast Gliwice xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
3%
29.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.38 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 27W 18D 12L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 19W 16D 22L from 57 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.96 PPG from 27 outings (15W 8D 4L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 5D 13L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.11 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 27W 18D 12L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 19W 16D 22L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.96 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
6
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Piast Gliwice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Jagiellonia) and 44% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 48% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 44% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.01 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.38 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.29 / defence 1.06 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.11 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Piast Gliwice 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.