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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom host Legia Warszawa at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.30 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 5 for Legia Warszawa and 0 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Legia Warszawa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Radomiak Radom trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Legia Warszawa trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 69% and Legia Warszawa 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Legia Warszawa 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.66 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.082 / defence 0.966 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.044 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.175. Data: 58 Radomiak Radom games / 58 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Legia Warszawa 3.85. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 50% | Legia Warszawa 90% BTTS from recent games.

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