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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 26 as Jagiellonia welcome Wisla Plock to Chorten Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Chorten Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Chorten Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 0.90 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 2, Wisla Plock 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Jagiellonia winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 68% and Wisla Plock 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 68% | Wisla Plock 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.83 xG and Wisla Plock 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.227 / defence 1.108 | Wisla Plock attack 0.821 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.128. Data: 59 Jagiellonia games / 25 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 21%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Plock 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Wisla Plock 70% BTTS from recent games.

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