Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 26 as Jagiellonia welcome Wisla Plock to Chorten Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Chorten Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Chorten Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 0.90 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 2, Wisla Plock 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 68% and Wisla Plock 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 68% | Wisla Plock 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.83 xG and Wisla Plock 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.227 / defence 1.108 | Wisla Plock attack 0.821 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.128. Data: 59 Jagiellonia games / 25 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 21%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Plock 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Wisla Plock 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Jagiellonia 1.83 / Wisla Plock 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.227 / def 1.108 | Wisla Plock attack 0.821 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Wisla Plock xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Jagiellonia 1 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock part of?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 56% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
Record (5 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.23) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.22
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.85
1.03
Wisla Plock xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
3%
30.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.03 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 25 games, going 11W 8D 6L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (9W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.64 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.04 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 11W 8D 6L in their last 25 games (1.64 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 9W 9D 7L in their last 25 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Wisla Plock away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.92 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 75%, Wisla Plock at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Jagiellonia) and 25% (Wisla Plock).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Jagiellonia's games and 75% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 25% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.83 xG and Wisla Plock 1.03 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.23 / defence 1.11 against Wisla Plock attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 21%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 68%, Wisla Plock 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.64 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.