Legia Warszawa 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Wojska Polskiego plays host to Legia Warszawa versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) — Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Zaglebie Lubin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins, with Zaglebie Lubin managing 1 and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Legia Warszawa 1–3 Zaglebie Lubin — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Legia Warszawa and goals — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 64% versus Zaglebie Lubin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 48% | Zaglebie Lubin 48%). Note also that Zaglebie Lubin surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Legia Warszawa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.24 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.869 / defence 0.955 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.074 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.107. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 62 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 62.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 32%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.67 | Draw 3.30 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Legia Warszawa 7 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Legia Warszawa 1.24 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.869 / def 0.955 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.074 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 17 April 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 37% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.87x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.07x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 62 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.30
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.38
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.14 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 22D 18L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.29 PPG from 62 outings (22W 14D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.29 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 14W 10D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.21 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 22W 22D 18L in their last 62 games (1.42 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 22W 14D 26L in their last 62 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.68 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Legia Warszawa on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 9, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 61%, Zaglebie Lubin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Legia Warszawa) and 45% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 26% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Legia Warszawa's games and 55% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 45% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 74% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.24 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 32%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.42 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.