Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Korona Kielce at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Legia Warszawa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Legia Warszawa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Korona Kielce, with 4 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Legia Warszawa a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 60% versus Korona Kielce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Legia Warszawa 40% | Korona Kielce 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.15 xG and Korona Kielce 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.140 / defence 0.756 | Korona Kielce attack 0.909 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.298. Korona Kielce bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Legia Warszawa games / 45 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 64% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 12%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Korona Kielce 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 50% | Korona Kielce 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 64% | Draw 24% | Korona Kielce 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.15 / Korona Kielce 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.140 / def 0.756 | Korona Kielce attack 0.909 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Korona Kielce xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 64% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Record (9 meetings): Legia Warszawa 4W | Draws 4 | Korona Kielce 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.17
12%
8.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.05
0.89
Korona Kielce xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
8.29
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
12%
8.63
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
1%
71.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.89 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 18W 18D 9L from 45 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 17L across 45 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.60 PPG, Korona Kielce on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 11W 8D 3L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 18D 9L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Korona Kielce away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.86 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
From 9 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Korona Kielce 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Legia Warszawa) and 41% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 54% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 41% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.