Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Wisla Krakow travel to Orlen Stadion to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Krakow — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.40 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wisla Plock, 1 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Wisla Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 46% versus Wisla Krakow 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 54% | Wisla Krakow 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.29 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.768 / defence 0.898 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.795 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.298. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Wisla Plock games / 11 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 42% | Draw 35% | Wisla Krakow 23%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Wisla Krakow 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Wisla Krakow 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 42% | Draw 35% | Wisla Krakow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Wisla Plock 1.29 / Wisla Krakow 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.768 / def 0.898 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.795 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Wisla Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 42% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (0.77) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
42%
2.41
35%
2.86
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.22
0.93
Wisla Krakow xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.93 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 3D 4L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.36 PPG, Wisla Krakow on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wisla Plock's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Krakow have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.55 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.75 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Wisla Krakow 2-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 25%, Wisla Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Wisla Plock and 25% for Wisla Krakow.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 50% of games; Wisla Krakow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 25% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.