Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Wisla Krakow travel to Orlen Stadion to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Krakow — All Games: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.67 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wisla Krakow are 1.17 PPG ahead (1.67 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wisla Plock, 1 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Wisla Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 50% and Wisla Krakow 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Plock 67% | Wisla Krakow 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.25 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.614 / defence 0.997 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.045 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.303. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Wisla Plock games / 6 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 31% | Draw 33% | Wisla Krakow 36%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Wisla Krakow 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 31% | Draw 33% | Wisla Krakow 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Wisla Plock 1.25 / Wisla Krakow 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.614 / def 0.997 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.045 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Wisla Krakow xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 31% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (0.61) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
31%
3.19
33%
3.07
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.61
1.36
Wisla Krakow xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.36 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Wisla Krakow 2-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wisla Plock at 50%, Wisla Krakow at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wisla Plock and 83% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wisla Plock's games and 83% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wisla Plock's matches and 83% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.