Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gornik Zabrze (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gornik Zabrze face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Gornik Zabrze's favour (2.20 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 3 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 3–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Gornik Zabrze and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gornik Zabrze 55% and Radomiak Radom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 53% | Radomiak Radom 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.38 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.139 / defence 1.122 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Gornik Zabrze games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 61% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 16%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Radomiak Radom 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 61% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Gornik Zabrze 2.38 / Radomiak Radom 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.139 / def 1.122 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Radomiak Radom xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 61% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 5W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.14) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.83x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.43
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
3.59
1.21
Radomiak Radom xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
9%
10.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
1%
67.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.21 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 19W 8D 11L from 38 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 15L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gornik Zabrze by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 12W 1D 5L from 18 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 2W 6D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.37 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 2.06 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 4-0 on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 61%, Radomiak Radom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Gornik Zabrze and 67% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 67% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 67% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.