Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Jagiellonia.

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Analysis

Jagiellonia make the trip to to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Widzew Łódź have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Jagiellonia's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jagiellonia are 1.00 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Jagiellonia, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Widzew Łódź winning.

It is worth noting that Jagiellonia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Jagiellonia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Jagiellonia 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.54 xG and Jagiellonia 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / defence 1.185 | Jagiellonia attack 1.438 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.438 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 38 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 25% | Draw 24% | Jagiellonia 51%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Jagiellonia 1.96. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.76 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.

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