Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 64% and Slask Wroclaw 91% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cracovia Krakow 54% | Slask Wroclaw 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 2.02 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.025 / defence 0.950 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.915 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Cracovia Krakow games / 11 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 54% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 18%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Slask Wroclaw 5.56. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Slask Wroclaw lead the H2H ledger, but Cracovia Krakow carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 54% | Draw 27% | Slask Wroclaw 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Cracovia Krakow 2.02 / Slask Wroclaw 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.025 / def 0.950 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.915 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Slask Wroclaw xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 54% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (9 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 3 | Slask Wroclaw 4W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.02x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.67
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.17
1.16
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
2%
40.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.16 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 3W 3D 5L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, 0.55 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cracovia Krakow are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slask Wroclaw.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Cracovia Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.27 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 91%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.67 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
4
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
From 9 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 67%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Cracovia Krakow and 83% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 83% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.