Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 1W 3D 2L from 6 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cracovia Krakow 1.20 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 50% and Slask Wroclaw 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 50% | Slask Wroclaw 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.58 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.967 / defence 1.072 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 40 Cracovia Krakow games / 6 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 26%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Slask Wroclaw 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.58 / Slask Wroclaw 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.967 / def 1.072 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Slask Wroclaw xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 43% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (9 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 3 | Slask Wroclaw 4W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.97x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.25
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.79
1.21
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
5%
18.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.21 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.33 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Cracovia Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slask Wroclaw's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 2.00 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
4
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
From 9 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 67%, Slask Wroclaw at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Cracovia Krakow and 67% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 67% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.