Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Zaglebie Lubin take on Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa meet at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Legia Warszawa are 1.20 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Legia Warszawa have the stronger historical record — 9 wins to Zaglebie Lubin's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 9 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 46% versus Legia Warszawa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Legia Warszawa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.17 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.880 / defence 0.730 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.069 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Zaglebie Lubin games / 41 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Draw 37% | Legia Warszawa 27%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Legia Warszawa 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 20% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Draw 37% | Legia Warszawa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.17 / Legia Warszawa 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.880 / def 0.730 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.069 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Legia Warszawa xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 36% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (10 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 9W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.07x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
37%
2.69
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.17
1.00
Legia Warszawa xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.00 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 15W 11D 13L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 15W 15D 9L from 39 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.54 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 9D 6L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.41 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 62%.
Defensively: Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 15W 15D 9L in their last 39 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.70 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
9
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 40%, Legia Warszawa 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 40% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 70% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 40% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.