Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lechia Gdansk face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin meet at Polsat Plus Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Lechia Gdansk have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.60 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 70% of Zaglebie Lubin's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 2 for Zaglebie Lubin and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended Lechia Gdansk 2–6 Zaglebie Lubin — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 71% and Zaglebie Lubin 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 64% | Zaglebie Lubin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.99 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.344 / defence 1.128 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.007 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.151. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.344 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 55 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 55.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 52% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.91 | Draw 4.17 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.21. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.99 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 80% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 22 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 52% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.99 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.344 / def 1.128 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.007 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Zaglebie Lubin xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 23 February 2026 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 22) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 52% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.01x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 55 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.17
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
3.30
1.31
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
3%
30.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.31 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 12D 24L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Zaglebie Lubin's form line: 18W 14D 23L from 55 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.24 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 7W 6D 14L from their last 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.52 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 23 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won Zaglebie Lubin 6-2 Lechia Gdansk on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2026: Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 63%, Zaglebie Lubin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lechia Gdansk) and 44% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 74% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Lechia Gdansk 0-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.99 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.34 / defence 1.13 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 52% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 64%, Zaglebie Lubin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.25 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.