Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 59%, yet the head-to-head data favours Pogon Szczecin — this Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk host Pogon Szczecin at Polsat Plus Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lechia Gdansk stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lechia Gdansk at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pogon Szczecin away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lechia Gdansk 1.80 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Pogon Szczecin have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Lechia Gdansk.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Lechia Gdansk 4–3 Pogon Szczecin — a Lechia Gdansk win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 68% versus Pogon Szczecin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 63% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.93 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.291 / defence 1.074 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.824 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.128. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.291 — their 1.93 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 59 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 59.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 59% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 19%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.70 | Draw 4.42 | Pogon Szczecin 5.37. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 60% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 59% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.93 / Pogon Szczecin 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.291 / def 1.074 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.824 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Pogon Szczecin xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Lechia Gdansk 2 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 59% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 59 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.42
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.93
1.00
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
3%
37.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.00 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 13D 26L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.56 PPG from 59 outings (27W 11D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.24 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 13W 5D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 29 away games (6W 7D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.59 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 20W 13D 26L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 27W 11D 21L in their last 59 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.52 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lechia Gdansk have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 5-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 59%, Pogon Szczecin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lechia Gdansk) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 52% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 72% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Pogon Szczecin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.93 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.00 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.29 / defence 1.07 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 59% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 19%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 63%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.24 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.