Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 49%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Legia Warszawa make the trip to Polsat Plus Arena to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Lechia Gdansk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Legia Warszawa have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Legia Warszawa are 0.80 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) — Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Legia Warszawa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Legia Warszawa edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Lechia Gdansk 2–2 Legia Warszawa — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 70% and Legia Warszawa 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 64% | Legia Warszawa 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lechia Gdansk surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Legia Warszawa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.71 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.252 / defence 1.086 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.921 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.151. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.252 — their 1.71 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 66 games and Legia Warszawa's last 66.

Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 49% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 24%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.03 | Draw 3.81 | Legia Warszawa 4.09. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 80% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 away games).

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