Korona Kielce 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Korona Kielce face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Exbud Arena to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Korona Kielce at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Korona Kielce, 1.30 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Korona Kielce's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) — Korona Kielce have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Jagiellonia edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Korona Kielce 1–3 Jagiellonia — a Jagiellonia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 56% versus Jagiellonia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 43% | Jagiellonia 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Korona Kielce surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.35 xG and Jagiellonia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.018 / defence 1.076 | Jagiellonia attack 0.922 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.078. Data: built from Korona Kielce's last 61 games and Jagiellonia's last 61.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 28%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.39 | Draw 3.37 | Jagiellonia 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Korona Kielce are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Korona Kielce 60% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Exbud Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Korona Kielce 1.35 / Jagiellonia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.018 / def 1.076 | Jagiellonia attack 0.922 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Jagiellonia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Exbud Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Korona Kielce 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Exbud Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia part of?
Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 42% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.02) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.92x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Korona Kielce's last 61 games and Jagiellonia's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.37
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.42
1.07
Jagiellonia xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.07 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 61 games, going 21W 18D 22L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.69 PPG from 61 outings (28W 19D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.69 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 14W 5D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.53 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 10D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
Korona Kielce (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Korona Kielce
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 21W 18D 22L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 28W 19D 14L in their last 61 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Jagiellonia away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.57 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won Jagiellonia 4-1 Korona Kielce on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Korona Kielce
2
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Korona Kielce have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Jagiellonia 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 50%, Jagiellonia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Korona Kielce) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Korona Kielce's games and 60% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 73% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.35 xG and Jagiellonia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Jagiellonia attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 28%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 43%, Jagiellonia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.33 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.