Jagiellonia 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Chorten Arena to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Chorten Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Chorten Arena than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Jagiellonia have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jagiellonia, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Piast Gliwice trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 63% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 68% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.54 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.314 / defence 0.814 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.916 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.170. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Jagiellonia games / 60 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 21%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Piast Gliwice 4.76. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Jagiellonia 1.54 / Piast Gliwice 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.314 / def 0.814 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.916 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Piast Gliwice xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 53% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
Record (7 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 4 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.88
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.41
0.87
Piast Gliwice xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
5%
21.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.87 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 33W 15D 12L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 17W 25D 18L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 2.30 PPG from 30 outings (21W 6D 3L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 7W 12D 11L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.07 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 33W 15D 12L in their last 60 games (1.90 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 25D 18L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.30 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
6
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 57%, Piast Gliwice 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Jagiellonia) and 23% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 43% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 23% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.54 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.87 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.31 / defence 0.81 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 21%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 68%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.