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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 27 as Radomiak Radom welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Radomiaka. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

On current form, Radomiak Radom have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 55% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 55% | Zaglebie Lubin 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.999 / defence 0.980 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.834 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.179. Data: 60 Radomiak Radom games / 60 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 50% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.17. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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