Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Puszcza Niepołomice face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach to take on Puszcza Niepołomice. The game is scheduled for Monday 7 April 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Raków Częstochowa are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Puszcza Niepołomice, 2 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 55% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 0.77 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.919 / defence 1.095 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.162 / defence 0.575. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.167. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.575 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 60 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 54%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Raków Częstochowa 1.85. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach • Kick-off: Monday 7 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 0.77 / Raków Częstochowa 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.919 / def 1.095 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.162 / def 0.575 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Raków Częstochowa xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 7 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 19% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (3 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
19%
5.16
26%
3.79
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.25
1.49
Raków Częstochowa xG
5.16
19%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
4%
22.78
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 15.6 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.49 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record stands at 15W 20D 25L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 13L across 60 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Puszcza Niepołomice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Puszcza Niepołomice have managed 11W 12D 6L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 13W 9D 7L across 29 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.55 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 30W 17D 13L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.55 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 66%, Raków Częstochowa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 38% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 48% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 0.77 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.49 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 0.57, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 54%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 38%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.