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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Piast Gliwice face Pogon Szczecin.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025, 13:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.

Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Pogon Szczecin 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.1 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Piast Gliwice trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Pogon Szczecin trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Pogon Szczecin 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 33% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 0.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.727 / defence 1.162 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.086 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.180. Piast Gliwice's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Piast Gliwice games / 61 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 21% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 53%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Pogon Szczecin 1.89. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 40% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.

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