Piast Gliwice 2-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Piast Gliwice face Pogon Szczecin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Pogon Szczecin 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.1 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Pogon Szczecin 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 33% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 0.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.727 / defence 1.162 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.086 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.180. Piast Gliwice's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Piast Gliwice games / 61 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 21% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 53%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Pogon Szczecin 1.89. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 40% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 21% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Piast Gliwice 0.82 / Pogon Szczecin 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.727 / def 1.162 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.086 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Pogon Szczecin xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 21% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (7 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 3 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
21%
4.84
26%
3.80
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.31
1.49
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
5%
21.43
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.8 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.49 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 17W 26D 18L from 61 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 19L across 61 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 10W 13D 7L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.70 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Pogon Szczecin in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 26D 18L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 30W 12D 19L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.43 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 43%, Pogon Szczecin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Piast Gliwice) and 47% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 37%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 30% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.49 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 21% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 53%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 33%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.