Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 27 as Stal Mielec welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Cracovia Krakow's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stal Mielec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cracovia Krakow in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Stal Mielec have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 57% versus Cracovia Krakow 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 53% | Cracovia Krakow 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.47 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.891 / defence 1.252 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.134 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.199. Data: 60 Stal Mielec games / 60 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 43%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Cracovia Krakow 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 60% | Cracovia Krakow 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Stal Mielec 1.47 / Cracovia Krakow 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.891 / def 1.252 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.134 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Cracovia Krakow xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Stal Mielec 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 33% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (7 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 4 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.89x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
33%
3.00
23%
4.28
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
3.18
1.70
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.00
33%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
6%
16.47
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.70 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 17W 15D 28L from 60 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 19W 23D 18L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.10 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 13W 8D 8L from 29 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 10W 10D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.53 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 17W 15D 28L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.62 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
5
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 52%, Cracovia Krakow 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Stal Mielec) and 38% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 31%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 31% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 52% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 38% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.47 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.70 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.89 / defence 1.25 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 33% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 43%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 53%, Cracovia Krakow 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.10 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.