Piast Gliwice 0-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 26 as Piast Gliwice welcome Widzew Łódź to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Piast Gliwice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Widzew Łódź 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Widzew Łódź trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Widzew Łódź 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 34% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.48 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.833 / defence 1.094 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.904 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.203. Widzew Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Piast Gliwice games / 59 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 30%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Widzew Łódź 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 40% | Widzew Łódź 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.48 / Widzew Łódź 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.833 / def 1.094 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.904 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Widzew Łódź xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 44% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 3W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.90
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.67
1.19
Widzew Łódź xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.19 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 25D 17L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.29 PPG from 59 outings (21W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.29 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 10W 13D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.97 points per game from 29 outings (6W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.24 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 17W 25D 17L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 21W 13D 25L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.48 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Widzew Łódź have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
6
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 45%, Widzew Łódź 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Piast Gliwice) and 55% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Piast Gliwice's games and 76% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 55% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Piast Gliwice 0-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.48 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.19 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 30%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 34%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.