Jagiellonia 0-0 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 37%, yet in-form Lech Poznan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jagiellonia welcome Lech Poznan to Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 20:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lech Poznan have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lech Poznan are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Lech Poznan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Jagiellonia.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Jagiellonia 2–2 Lech Poznan — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lech Poznan have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lech Poznan trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 65% and Lech Poznan 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 58% | Lech Poznan 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.37 xG and Lech Poznan 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.166 / defence 1.195 | Lech Poznan attack 1.010 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.094. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 60 games and Lech Poznan's last 60.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 35%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.68 | Draw 3.59 | Lech Poznan 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lech Poznan (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 80% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 27 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Jagiellonia 1.37 / Lech Poznan 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.166 / def 1.195 | Lech Poznan attack 1.010 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Lech Poznan xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Jagiellonia 0 - 0 Lech Poznan.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan part of?
Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 27) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 37% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.17) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jagiellonia's last 60 games and Lech Poznan's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.59
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.69
1.32
Lech Poznan xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.32 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 28W 18D 14L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 34W 12D 14L from 60 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.70 PPG, Lech Poznan on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 8D 6L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 13W 8D 9L from their last 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.90 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Jagiellonia (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jagiellonia
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 28W 18D 14L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Lech Poznan away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.87 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2024, when Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 5-0 Jagiellonia.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
6
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jagiellonia have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Lech Poznan 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 70%, Lech Poznan 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jagiellonia) and 50% (Lech Poznan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jagiellonia's games and 47% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jagiellonia's matches and 50% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 77% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jagiellonia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.37 xG and Lech Poznan 1.32 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.17 / defence 1.20 against Lech Poznan attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 35%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 58%, Lech Poznan 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.70 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.