Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jagiellonia face Gornik Zabrze.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze meet at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.

Current Form

Jagiellonia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Gornik Zabrze have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Gornik Zabrze's last 10 away games) — Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Gornik Zabrze in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Jagiellonia, 2 for Gornik Zabrze and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Jagiellonia 1–2 Gornik Zabrze — a Gornik Zabrze win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Gornik Zabrze 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 57% | Gornik Zabrze 46%). Note also that Gornik Zabrze surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Jagiellonia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.50 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.068 / defence 1.049 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.812 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.143. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 63 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 63.

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 49% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 24%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.05 | Draw 3.61 | Gornik Zabrze 4.24. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 80% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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