Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GKS Katowice make the trip to to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L at — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GKS Katowice (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. GKS Katowice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, GKS Katowice have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, GKS Katowice are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, GKS Katowice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Radomiak Radom 1W, GKS Katowice 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with GKS Katowice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
GKS Katowice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 69% and GKS Katowice 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | GKS Katowice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG and GKS Katowice 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.939 / defence 1.010 | GKS Katowice attack 1.000 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 39 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 31% | GKS Katowice 31%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | GKS Katowice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GKS Katowice (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | GKS Katowice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 37% | Draw 31% | GKS Katowice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.44 / GKS Katowice 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.939 / def 1.010 | GKS Katowice attack 1.000 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.32
GKS Katowice xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice part of?
Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 37% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
Record (5 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 1 | GKS Katowice 3W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. GKS Katowice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.94x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GKS Katowice's attack (1.00x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.18
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.76
1.32
GKS Katowice xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.32 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 12D 15L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.51 PPG from 39 outings (17W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for GKS Katowice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.51 for GKS Katowice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GKS Katowice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.62 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
GKS Katowice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or GKS Katowice away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.75 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GKS Katowice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
3
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
From 5 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, GKS Katowice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when GKS Katowice 3-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 70%, GKS Katowice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Radomiak Radom) and 50% (GKS Katowice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play GKS Katowice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Radomiak Radom's games and 50% of GKS Katowice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 50% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Radomiak Radom and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.