GKS Katowice 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GKS Katowice at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
GKS Katowice welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion miejski w Katowicach in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 12:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, GKS Katowice have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
GKS Katowice's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wisla Plock stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, GKS Katowice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for GKS Katowice, 0 for Wisla Plock and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended GKS Katowice 1–1 Wisla Plock — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GKS Katowice in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GKS Katowice 42% versus Wisla Plock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GKS Katowice 50% | Wisla Plock 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 1.55 xG and Wisla Plock 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 1.089 / defence 0.861 | Wisla Plock attack 0.906 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.108. Data: built from GKS Katowice's last 60 games and Wisla Plock's last 26.
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 52% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 20%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 1.91 | Draw 3.63 | Wisla Plock 4.99. GKS Katowice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GKS Katowice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GKS Katowice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: GKS Katowice 40% (last 10 home games) | Wisla Plock 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion miejski w Katowicach • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 52% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG GKS Katowice 1.55 / Wisla Plock 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 1.089 / def 0.861 | Wisla Plock attack 0.906 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Wisla Plock xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock FAQs
What time does GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
GKS Katowice 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock part of?
GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 27) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 52% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GKS Katowice's attack rating (1.09) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus GKS Katowice's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GKS Katowice's last 60 games and Wisla Plock's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.63
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
2.41
0.86
Wisla Plock xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
23.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 0.86 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GKS Katowice come into this having played 26 games, going 11W 3D 12L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (10W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GKS Katowice on 1.38 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GKS Katowice's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across their last 13 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 13 away games (3W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GKS Katowice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.08 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
GKS Katowice (Home) vs Wisla Plock (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GKS Katowice
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock Form FAQs
What form are GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 11W 3D 12L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 10W 9D 7L in their last 26 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GKS Katowice at home or Wisla Plock away?
GKS Katowice's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GKS Katowice at home: 1.77 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2025. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Aug 2026, when GKS Katowice won GKS Katowice 5-0 Wisla Plock.
GKS Katowice's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, GKS Katowice have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: GKS Katowice 5-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GKS Katowice 46%, Wisla Plock 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GKS Katowice) and 31% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of GKS Katowice's games and 77% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GKS Katowice's recent games and 31% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GKS Katowice and Wisla Plock matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of GKS Katowice's recent matches and 69% of Wisla Plock's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.55 xG and Wisla Plock 0.86 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Wisla Plock attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 52% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 20%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 50%, Wisla Plock 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GKS Katowice's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.38 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.