Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Wisla Plock.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wisla Plock travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wisla Plock — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wisla Plock away from home: 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 0.70 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 70% of Wisla Plock's (from Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Wisla Plock's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Wisla Plock 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2025, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Wisla Plock — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 46% versus Wisla Plock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 46% | Wisla Plock 25%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cracovia Krakow surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Wisla Plock have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.44 xG and Wisla Plock 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.941 / defence 1.042 | Wisla Plock attack 0.701 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.163. Wisla Plock's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 58 games and Wisla Plock's last 24.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 21%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.01 | Draw 3.38 | Wisla Plock 4.81. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Wisla Plock's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 60% (last 10 home games) | Wisla Plock 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.44 / Wisla Plock 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.941 / def 1.042 | Wisla Plock attack 0.701 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Wisla Plock xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 50% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 58 games and Wisla Plock's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.38
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.29
0.85
Wisla Plock xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
5%
20.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.85 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 8W 9D 7L from 24 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 7L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.38 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 4W 5D 2L from their last 11 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 1W 6D 4L across their last 11 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.00 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Wisla Plock (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Wisla Plock away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.55 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Wisla Plock 3-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 54%, Wisla Plock 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Cracovia Krakow and 18% for Wisla Plock.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 73% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 18% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 73% of Wisla Plock's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.44 xG and Wisla Plock 0.85 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Wisla Plock attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 21%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Wisla Plock 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.38 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.