Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 March 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Raków Częstochowa — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gornik Zabrze register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Gornik Zabrze hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Raków Częstochowa, with 2 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The historical record gives Gornik Zabrze a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Raków Częstochowa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Raków Częstochowa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.979 / defence 0.957 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.198 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.165. Data: 58 Gornik Zabrze games / 58 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Gornik Zabrze dominate the H2H record, yet Raków Częstochowa are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Raków Częstochowa (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Raków Częstochowa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.49 / Raków Częstochowa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.979 / def 0.957 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.198 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 40% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (9 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 5W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.98x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.61
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.34 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 13D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.83 PPG from 58 outings (31W 13D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 15W 5D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.90 points per game from 29 outings (16W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.45 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 23W 13D 22L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 13D 14L in their last 58 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.72 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 48%, Raków Częstochowa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Gornik Zabrze) and 38% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 48%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 41% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Raków Częstochowa 3-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.20 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 40% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.